Quick answer
New data from Virginia’s Health Benefit Exchange show that enrollment in Virginia’s Insurance Marketplace fell from about 370,000 people in January 2026 to about 297,000 in July, a decline of roughly 73,000 people. The same midyear comparison was much smaller in 2025: enrollment fell from about 381,000 in January to about 364,000 in July. The state has linked this year’s sharper decline to higher premiums and the expiration of enhanced federal premium tax credits at the end of 2025. Virginia Beach is directly exposed to those changes because it had 15,827 Marketplace enrollees in 2025, according to a state presentation. The latest public statewide data do not show how many of the 2026 coverage losses occurred specifically in Virginia Beach, Suffolk, or the Eastern Shore.
What The New State Data Show
A Virginia Health Benefit Exchange presentation dated September 24 shows a notably different enrollment pattern for plan year 2026.
At the start of 2026, about 370,000 Virginians were enrolled through the Marketplace. By July, the total had fallen to about 297,000. That is about 73,000 fewer enrollees, or roughly a 20 percent decline from January.
For comparison, the presentation shows:
• Plan year 2025: about 381,000 enrollees in January and 364,000 in July.
• Plan year 2024: about 401,000 enrollees in January and 360,000 in July.
• Plan year 2026: about 370,000 enrollees in January and 297,000 in July.
The Exchange also reported that 11 percent of plan selections for 2026 had a net monthly premium of $10 or less, compared with 30 percent in 2025.
Those figures are documented statewide counts. They are not a Virginia Beach-specific loss estimate, and they do not by themselves establish why each individual enrollee left coverage.
What Changed Federally
The enhanced federal premium tax credits that had been available since 2021 expired at the end of 2025. Virginia’s Insurance Marketplace says the expiration took effect January 1, 2026.
The original Affordable Care Act premium tax credits remain available to qualifying households, but the temporary enhancements had reduced the share of income many consumers were expected to pay and had also extended subsidy eligibility to some households above 400 percent of the federal poverty level.
When the enhanced credits ended, some consumers received smaller subsidies while others became ineligible for premium assistance because their incomes were above the restored federal cutoff.
The State Corporation Commission said in July that Marketplace consumers experienced an average 75 percent increase in what they paid toward premiums in 2026, reflecting both higher insurer rates and the expiration of the enhanced federal credits. The agency estimated at that time that about 100,000 Virginians had lost Marketplace coverage during the year.
That statement is the state agency’s assessment of the overall trend. It does not mean every 2026 disenrollment was caused by the federal subsidy change. People can also leave Marketplace coverage because they gain employer insurance, become eligible for Medicaid or Medicare, move, fail to pay premiums, or experience other eligibility changes.
The Virginia Beach Connection
Virginia’s Health Benefit Exchange had already identified Virginia Beach as one of the state’s higher-enrollment localities before the 2026 changes took effect.
A September 2025 Exchange presentation listed 14,788 Virginia Beach enrollees with household income below 400 percent of the federal poverty level and another 1,039 above 400 percent, for a total of 15,827 enrollees.
That same presentation projected that the expiration of the enhanced federal credits could increase net monthly premiums for Virginia Beach consumers by roughly $63 to $73 for households below 400 percent of the poverty level and by roughly $628 to $719 for households above it, based on the assumptions and rates used at the time.
Those were projections made before plan year 2026, not a measure of what every Virginia Beach household ultimately paid. The September 2026 presentation does not provide a locality-by-locality count of actual 2026 disenrollments.
The local conclusion is therefore limited but important: Virginia Beach entered 2026 with a substantial Marketplace population, while the state as a whole then experienced a much sharper midyear enrollment decline than it had the year before. Public data released so far do not support assigning a specific share of that decline to Virginia Beach or the rest of Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.
What Virginia Is Doing For 2027
Virginia has created a separate state-funded program called Virginia Premium Savings for plan year 2027.
The program is funded with $150 million from the state budget and is designed for qualifying Marketplace households between 138 percent and 250 percent of the federal poverty level. The Exchange says as many as 200,000 Virginians could qualify.
State modeling presented in September estimates that the program would reduce net premiums by an average of 62 percent within the targeted income bands, with an average effective subsidy of about $78 per member per month. Individual results will vary by income, household size, plan and any federal tax credit for which the household qualifies.
The state program does not restore the expired federal enhanced tax credits. It is a separate Virginia subsidy layered on top of any remaining federal premium tax credit.
The Marketplace says open enrollment for 2027 coverage will run from November 1, 2026 through January 29, 2027.
Premium Pressure Has Not Disappeared
Virginia’s Bureau of Insurance says nine insurers plan to participate in the individual market in 2027. Their requested rate increases range from 3.9 percent to 22.7 percent, with an average requested increase of 16.7 percent over 2026 rates.
Those are requested rates, not a single uniform increase that will apply to every consumer. Actual premiums depend on the carrier, plan, age, geography and household circumstances, and what a consumer pays after subsidies can differ substantially from the full premium.
Virginia’s reinsurance program also remains in place for 2027. The SCC says that program has generally reduced individual-market premiums by about 15 percent or more compared with what rates would otherwise have been.
What The Public Record Can And Cannot Show Yet
The strongest new evidence is statewide: enrollment was down by about 73,000 people between January and July 2026, and the decline was materially steeper than the comparable period in 2025.
The public record also shows that Virginia Beach had nearly 16,000 Marketplace enrollees before the 2026 changes and that the state is responding with a new affordability program for 2027.
What the public record does not yet show is how many people in Virginia Beach, Suffolk, Accomack County, Northampton County, or the rest of the 2nd Congressional District lost Marketplace coverage during 2026, or how many will return once Virginia Premium Savings becomes available.
That distinction matters. Statewide enrollment data can establish that a coverage decline occurred. They cannot, without locality-level data, establish its precise scale inside the district.
Sources
- Virginia Joint Commission on Health Care / Virginia Health Benefit Exchange, “Virginia Marketplace Presentation to Joint Commission on Health Care,” dated Sept. 24, 2026 — Virginia Joint Commission on Health Care / Virginia Health Benefit Exchange. Virginia Joint Commission on Health Care / Virginia Health Benefit Exchange, “Virginia Marketplace Presentation to Joint Commission on Health Care,” dated Sept. 24, 2026
- Virginia’s Insurance Marketplace, “Federal Changes to the Marketplace” — Virginia’s Insurance Marketplace. Virginia’s Insurance Marketplace, “Federal Changes to the Marketplace”
- Virginia State Corporation Commission, “New State Funding Will Help Virginians Save on Marketplace Health Coverage,” July 6, 2026 — Virginia State Corporation Commission. Virginia State Corporation Commission, “New State Funding Will Help Virginians Save on Marketplace Health Coverage,” July 6, 2026
- Virginia State Corporation Commission, “Insurance Premiums in Virginia for Plan Year 2027” — Virginia State Corporation Commission. Virginia State Corporation Commission, “Insurance Premiums in Virginia for Plan Year 2027”
- Virginia Health Benefit Exchange Advisory Committee, Sept. 25, 2025 presentation — Virginia Health Benefit Exchange Advisory Committee. Virginia Health Benefit Exchange Advisory Committee, Sept. 25, 2025 presentation